Hockey Lockout Effect: More Than Just A Few Games

Leafing through the newspaper a couple of weeks during my son's hockey practice, I read an article bemoaning the falling levels of signups among kids for hockey in programs around Canada. 

As someone who moved to Canada 9 years back, this was quite surprising given that hockey is practically a religion here. Hockey is so ingrained in the Canadian culture that it seems to permeate every aspect of society. Brands compete with each other to see who is more closely associated with hockey and pay big bucks for it!

However, if one was to take 'hockey' as a brand, the brand management of hockey is decidedly questionable. The talk about the unnecessary 'sanctioned' hitting has been very strong in the last few years and some parents now may be  thinking twice to have their young ones exposed to the violence. And now we have the lock-out. I wonder if Gary Bettman, the players and others involved understand what they are doing to the long term prospect of the sport. 

Watching hockey in the fall and winter months is a tradition here. You take it away for a few months and then what is likely to happen? People will miss it for sure but then they will fill the time with other things...maybe other sports and start liking it! More folks may start watching European soccer and discover what the fuss about Messi is really about. And there is no guarantee that everyone will come back to hockey when it starts again. With time the sport loses audiences, eye balls and overall engagement and then they will see a decline in the sports revenue...the very thing that they are squabbling about!!

Using data to prove hypothesis is now a habit having been a researcher for a better part of 2 decades. I started looking at Google Trends to validate this hypothesis.For those who are not familiar, Google Trends allows you to look at the search volume over time. So, if I were to type in 'Lady Gaga' I can get a trend line that effectively shows whether more or less people  are searching about Lady Gaga. We also know that interest/engagement is usually related to people getting inquisitive and searching for it. It holds to reason... the more interested we are, the more we want to find out!!

I typed in "hockey" and saw the data pattern for Canada and the US. The level of 'interest' in Canada is higher than the US, which stands to reason. However what was very concerning is that in Canada the interest in hockey (as evidenced by people searching for 'hockey') is actually coming down.  The interest in hockey in the US, an important market for the league, is not growing either.   

That is really bad brand management for the 'hockey' brand! Clearly the hockey lockout this year will decrease interest even more. As you can see (the right hand side of the graph) the seasonal bump this year is very weak. Will it come back to much stronger levels if/when the season resumes? I won't bet on it.

In my opinion, the marketing of the NFL in the US is fantastic. The plots and sub-plots are fascinating and keeps its audience engaged in the sport. That is great for the league and football overall. Look at the chart below for the US. The searches for the NFL are increasing over time. Short seasonal bumps as the seasons are short but getting bigger every year.

The management team of the NHL, NHLPA and all other big honchos of hockey need to sit back and take stock of the engagement levels with the sport and realize the long term harm they will do to the sports popularity if lockouts and other such shenanigans continue. The sport is big but not growing, as evidenced by the falling numbers of kids who are signing up for it. More importantly, there are many whose livelihoods are connected with hockey.

My plea to all the top guns... Please, please focus on understanding the importance of maintaining and growing the equity of hockey, rather than arguing about who gets how much. If this continues there will be very little to fight over!! 

If cheese, milk and egg manufacturers understand the importance of keeping their overall categories relevant in consumers minds (beyond brand marketing) and market the category ...why can't hockey?? 

Aparajito... The Undefeated

Satyajit Ray's Apu trilogy is regarded to be the epitome of his amazing cinematic career. 'Aparajito' was the second movie of the trilogy, and is my personal favourite. The indomitable spirit of the young boy was awe-inspiring and left a deep impact on me when I first saw the movie as a young boy myself. For those who have not seen the movie, I highly recommend the trilogy even if you don't understand Bengali. Watching it with subtitles is not the same thing, but pretty close!

On Saturday seeing Sourav Ganguly turn back the years for a brief moment during the recent IPL match (Pune vs Delhi) made me ponder a favourite Bengali question... why do we find Dada so endearing? He was a good batsman, but that was some years back. While he had a good captaincy record, Dhoni's is probably as good if not better.

Once considered the centre of India's power, West Bengal is of little consequence in today's political milieu. Kolkata, once India's capital, is probably the largest unimportant city in India today. It is therefore not surprising that Bengalis love to live in the past, in the glory days of Rabindranath Tagore and Satyajit Ray. Talk to a Bengali and either one or both these names will come up in the first five minutes of the conversation!

From the late 90s (when he started his career) to now, Sourav Ganguly has become the next icon in Bengal. For Bengalis (and some others!) he represents this indomitable spirit in real life. He is an icon not because he is, or was, the most talented but because of his determination. He inspires us to do better with what we have, and to not give up. The admiration for him is for demonstrating that strong willpower and determination will pay off and to stay true to what one believes.

Sourav's biggest contribution to Indian cricket is that it made it a team that believes. By making it a truly world class team that can compete outside India. I think, in a country where cricket is religion, India's improvement in cricket played a strong part in instilling self-belief among all of us as we all strode to compete in the global world in our respective fields. 

His other big contribution is to instill in us the power of not giving up and the value of tenacity. A cricketer with many achievements like Sourav would have been expected to give up after the Greg Chappell incident but he came back. An "icon" IPL player kicked out of his home team 'Kolkata Knight Riders' and not picked up at the subsequent auction should have given up but he came back again.

Sourav is not much of a batsman these days; clearly playing from memory. A few days away from his 40th birthday, his reflexes are slower and eyes are dimmer, but the spirit is there. It is fascinating to see him work with  the bits and parts Pune team and turn it around as he instills self belief and resilience in a bunch of young cricketers. 

The ability to inspire and the indomitable spirit is what makes Sourav Ganguly have such a strong impact on us at a deep emotional level. While the cognitive brain may argue against his value in a cricket team, the emotive brain holds on steadfastly. And if one wants to create a team that has a strong following we need to find an emotional connection for the audience.

I think this is the part that Shah Rukh Khan and his band of merry men missed. KKR without Sourav is a team without an emotional connection to it's audience. One can throw in as many Kallises and Gambhirs  and they can win the IPL, but the KKR tagline 'Korbo Lorbo Jeetbo' (will win, will fight, will win) sounds empty without the man who instilled the 'Aparajito spirit' in Bengal, and perhaps the rest of India.

Tiger Woods...Yup, it's the Yips

Tiger, Tiger burning bright
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Could frame thy fearful symmetry?


-William Blake (1757-1827)


Tiger Woods easily dominates the golf world's attention even today. All eyes were on Abu Dhabi (a land far away!) when he and the highest ranked players in the world were playing in it a few weeks back and not in the PGA Tour event the same week. The attention was back on the PGA Tour event a couple of weeks later when Tiger was playing here and the rest of the world's top ranked players were playing in Dubai!

His aura is justified as he is probably the most awesome golfer playing today when you compare his career achievements to those of current players. But is he a great golfer today? I don't think so. He is still very good but just not in the class that he was in before.

I don't think it is his scandal or his injuries are the main issues. I think the reason is far humbler than that. Age. He is not old. Just older. Older enough for the arm to be that little less steady, the eyes that little unsure. Miniscule. Marginal. The Yips, as they are called in the golfing world. However, that's all that it takes at the highest level.

Tiger's trademark, in my mind, has been the 'tiger charge' in the final round. His ability to sink putts in a pressure keg situation left one struck with awe. You just knew that if Tiger was anywhere close to the leader, he will charge.

It's just not there anymore. Tiger, in the last few months, has come into contention a few times due to strong plays in the second or third round. More often than not he wilts in the fourth round. In my mind, this started before the scandal. In the 2009 PGA Championship Tiger lost the lead in the final round to a then unheard of Y.E. Yang. Unheard of! Unthinkable!

He has come back now, scandal and injury free, with a new swing but the absence of  his key weapon... the 'tiger charge'. He is possibly shocked more than anyone else leading  to a compounding effect on the final day. His fourth round scores are now usually the weakest. Robert Rock (who??) beating him in Abu Dhabi, fading after striking distance at Pebble Beach last week...

Age is an inconsiderate beast that everyone grapples with. As time marches on it will be interesting to see how/if Tiger responds. I am an incurable Tiger enthusiast and hope he finds a new mantra for success. Realistically I can see Tiger win a few tournaments in the future but not many.

Still burning bright, but I don't have to wear shades to protect my eyes anymore!

Tennis's Finest Hour

As we all try to take in all that happened today in the land Down Under, I cannot help but feel a sense of joy at being privileged to witness men's tennis's finest hour. Engagement with a sport is not just created by the success of a single player but the duels between champions. There is no doubt that Novak, Rafa and Roger are some of the finest to have ever played the game.  I am sure that in any other era Andy Murray would have been a multiple major winner but he seems to have been born in the wrong era! I am sure his time will come soon.  For these four to exist in the same era is a huge treat for fans... and I am sure it brings many more fans into the game. The immaculate performances on court accompanied by their post-match graciousness and exemplary off-court behavior makes these players true champions and role models for the future generations. Tennis, at the end of the day, is the ultimate winner.

It is not a given that at any point of time people on top of the game are legends and the very best to have played the game. One doesn't have to look far. Women's tennis is struggling to find true champions. As Venus and Serena fade away, and Clijsters plays in fits and starts, there is no true champion currently and this will, no doubt, impact the interest in wone's tennis. Hopefully this changes quickly. Till a day back the women's world number one was someone who had not won a single major! 

Golf is struggling immensely as well. In a world here the Tiger-Mickelson duels are possibly a thing of the past. The world is hoping for a Tiger resurgence hoping that Tiger-McIlroy rivalry brings back the fading interest (and ratings) in the sport. In an ironical coincidence, the current golf world number one has not won a major as well.

Back to tennis... In the beginning of the year I had assumed that the effects of injuries would get the better of Rafa and a resurgent Roger Federer would likely re-emerge as Novak's true challenger. However that has not been the case so far this year. Rafa has come back strongly, and how! Novak and Rafa together seem to have taken the game to a higher notch. At Flushing Meadows last year when the two battled for the US Open crown one thought it could not get any better. With the longest Slam final just concluded in Melbourne, they have beaten all expectations!

One can only be giddy with excitement as to what lies ahead this year for tennis and it's fans. This is special.

The Cricket Conundrum

So we see it again... the #1 team playing away from home and looking anything but the numero uno team in the world. I am not talking about India but England playing Pakistan in their 'home' conditions. While technically the matches are being played in the UAE, the conditions they play in are far removed from those in England and likely closer to the conditions that Pakistani players have honed their skills on. Everyone is, again, pontificating on what has gone wrong with the #1 team in the world.

The point is that in a game where ground conditions (bounce in the pitch, moisture, humidity) play a huge role, there is a distinct advantage for home teams beyond the home support in the stadium. Instincts are based on muscle memory created through hours of practice in the nets. These instincts are honed on probabilities created in one's mind in the nano-seconds after the ball has been delivered. Will the ball be low or high? How much will it swing? Obviously the hallmark of a great player is the enormity of the database in their heads, and the ability to pick the right shot taking  conditions into account. Chances are that the database for home conditions are far higher than conditions for different conditions. As far as I can remember, New Zealand has made India look very ordinary every time they have played there and the reverse has happened when the Kiwis have played in India.

Well then, it should even out? Not really. Unlike some other sports, where the schedules are mapped to have home and away games in close proximity, cricket series do not follow a specific pattern and 'return visits' are far apart. As a result players returning from an 'away' series face severe public censure and eventually lose their places in the side. Team structures are changed, captains are removed. 

I think a solution for this is to have series that have an equal number of tests (or one-dayers) at home and away as a single package... and then evaluate the performance of the team and players in it's entirety.This will lead to greater engagement in the series. Years ago when it took months to travel between countries, and the practice of  home and away series was set up, this was not possible. Travel has evolved  and now maybe cricket should do as well?!

I would be much more inclined to watch a 4 match Border-Gavaskar series that is played in Adelaide, Perth, Mumbai and Kolkata, and feel justified in evaluating the talents of Virat Kohli, Mitchell Starc et al after this. 

Let the better team win, but let's level the playing field first.

Milos away from the Ordinary

Tomorrow we head to the first Grand Slam tennis event, the Australian Open, played on hard courts and in searing heat.


One of the 'dark horses' for the tournament is our own boy from Thornhill, Milos Raonic. Milos won his second career ATP tournament last weekend. The tournament was hosted in the country of my birth, India. As I sat in my living room cheering him on every point in the tense final against Janko, a top 10 ranked player, I could not help compare the sporting similarities between Canada and India. In both countries the sporting passions seem to be largely centered around one sport, cricket and (ice) hockey. The stars from these sports are revered and hyped and way too many folks spend way too much time obsessing about it! Yet, both sports are played in a handful of countries and neither can be truly classified as a world sport.


In contrast, tennis is a beautiful game played across the world. A true global sport that has fans in most countries. Names such as John McEnroe, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer are recognized around the world while Sidney Crosby and Sachin Tendulkar may mean nothing in most parts of the world.



Till today Canada focuses on hockey and other games invented in North America. I was rather bemused to see the story of Milos's win last Sunday take second place to some qualifier match in a League invented by and played by Americans (aka the NFL) on a local Toronto channel!


In my mind Milos has the opportunity, and talent, to truly put Canada on the global sports map. With a serve 'to die for' and a pretty good all-round game he could be the next 'real thing'. I will be there rooting for him every step of the way as he continues his phenomenal rise. I hope that everyone else in Canada recognizes what Milos is is doing for this country and joins me in cheering for the young lad.


Go Milos Go!!